Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.408248 2.558870 2.723910 2.920224 3.150254 3.415144 3.749405
2025-05-25 2.234595 2.422579 2.638430 2.909912 3.250729 3.677844 4.279366
2025-06-01 2.111961 2.320410 2.567496 2.890877 3.318602 3.892955 4.786344
2025-06-08 2.014515 2.235202 2.503092 2.864682 3.363627 4.074764 5.290150
2025-06-15 1.959402 2.194838 2.487386 2.894784 3.482640 4.378413 6.098960
2025-06-22 1.861537 2.093728 2.385176 2.796687 3.402714 4.356165 6.302197
2025-06-29 1.809328 2.046927 2.349546 2.785584 3.447740 4.542849 7.019363
2025-07-06 1.743545 1.978966 2.281289 2.721991 3.403372 4.565056 7.375965
2025-07-13 1.722977 1.968240 2.288378 2.766105 3.532721 4.928547 8.904172
2025-07-20 1.717338 1.976281 2.320707 2.849137 3.736883 5.500122 12.039476
2025-07-27 1.686457 1.948851 2.301650 2.851773 3.801936 5.798291 14.982520
2025-08-03 1.660794 1.927179 2.289238 2.863198 3.883688 6.165223 20.446466
2025-08-10 1.610566 1.871486 2.227403 2.794791 3.813735 6.143163 22.897013
2025-08-17 1.580392 1.842185 2.202241 2.783628 3.852274 6.430114 35.516197
2025-08-24 1.550443 1.812033 2.174312 2.765715 3.875000 6.685361 75.649543
2025-08-31 1.520785 1.781237 2.144023 2.741700 3.882266 6.900859 NaN
2025-09-07 1.506851 1.771748 2.144541 2.768960 3.999240 7.547249 NaN
2025-09-14 1.463274 1.719333 2.079029 2.679727 3.856441 7.195839 NaN
2025-09-21 1.442271 1.698278 2.059957 2.669600 3.885794 7.519564 NaN
2025-09-28 1.410009 1.660502 2.014513 2.611565 3.803962 7.378119 NaN
2025-10-05 1.404113 1.659925 2.025207 2.651835 3.946916 8.256510 NaN
2025-10-12 1.406748 1.671481 2.054718 2.727450 4.186407 9.924722 NaN
2025-10-19 1.392088 1.657626 2.044286 2.729847 4.249108 10.753512 NaN